{"id":18683,"date":"2024-02-16T13:31:05","date_gmt":"2024-02-16T18:31:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.insightpartners.com\/?p=18683"},"modified":"2025-02-20T11:56:14","modified_gmt":"2025-02-20T16:56:14","slug":"tech-valuations-are-at-a-10-year-low-but-optimism-should-be-at-a-5-year-high-heres-why","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.insightpartners.com\/ideas\/tech-valuations-are-at-a-10-year-low-but-optimism-should-be-at-a-5-year-high-heres-why\/","title":{"rendered":"Tech valuations are at a 10-year low \u2014 but optimism should be at a 5-year high. Here\u2019s why."},"content":{"rendered":"

This article originally appeared on Fortune.com<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

We have all been through a lot in the past four years.\u202fIn early 2020, the NASDAQ was at or near record for most of January and February.\u202fThings felt great.\u202fThen COVID-19 broke out.\u202fThe rapid adaption of tech, fueled by remote work, led to a massive tech boom and supercharged adoption, innovation, employment, and valuations from the second half of 2020 through Q1 of 2022. Then came war in Europe, rampant inflation, high interest rates, uncertainty, a Great Reset in tech valuations, a banking crisis in the heart of Silicon Valley, and many very hard conversations for CEOs, their management teams, and their boards.<\/p>\n

We are now in early 2024 asking ourselves what to expect for the tech ecosystem next.\u202fI am hoping we come to look at this year as the first \u201cnormal\u201d year since 2019.\u202fWhile there are geopolitical risks that can always disrupt this hope, we should<\/i> have finally squeezed all of the pandemic-related distortion out of the system \u2014 and we have a chance to see some improving demand signals after six quarters of tech budget austerity. For that reason, 2024 is my year of Great (Reset) Expectations.<\/p>\n

2024 is my year of Great (Reset) Expectations<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The mindset shift from the 2021 boom to the Great (Reset) Expectations of 2024 is significant \u2014 and healthy for the ecosystem. But there are significant implications for founders and investors. At the highest level, the biggest shift can be expressed succinctly:\u202fThe cost of failure has increased dramatically.\u202fThis is the result of three major differences from late 2021 to today, including diminishing returns regardless of demand, valuations remaining closer to 10-year lows than the highs of 2021, and capital being more expensive \u2014 and that\u2019s assuming it\u2019s available.<\/p>\n

Demand can and will experience diminishing returns \u2014 eventually<\/h2>\n

There are so many attributes of software that defy classical economic ideals.\u202fMost businesses get the benefit of neither high gross profit margins nor high recurring revenue.\u202fSoftware \u2014 particularly SaaS software \u2014 gets both<\/i>.\u202fThose are the ingredients for high growth and high margins, which can lead to \u201cthe rule of 50 or better,\u201d whereby returns are the sum of growth rate plus profit margin.<\/p>\n

In the boom, tech companies experienced a remarkable level of demand responsiveness to sales efforts. Unlike the traditional concept of price elasticity, this phenomenon was characterized by the market’s reaction to the expansion of the sales force and sales activities, rather than to changes in pricing. Scaling up sales operations or marketing efforts led to a proportional increase in sales results.<\/p>\n

It was like a finance cheat code.\u202fTo maintain a stable customer acquisition cost (CAC), improvements in efficiency must offset the diminishing returns of market penetration. This is reasonable if you are increasing sales spend by 20%. But 200%?\u202fThat\u2019s so much harder.\u202fGoing from 200 sales reps to 600 sales reps is a wildly different management model with much more acute needs for advanced systems and leadership. But during the boom, the sales stats all looked great as companies tripled sales spend.\u202fHow could this be?\u202fPart of the reason was that companies were increasing software spend in anticipation of their own hiring plans, but demand was exaggerated unbeknownst to the industry because there was a widespread miscalculation on how fast teams would be scaling their tech effort. That music stopped in Q2 2022, and we saw CAC deteriorate instantaneously.<\/p>\n

Obsessing over efficiency \u2014 or at least the path to efficiency \u2014 will always be fashionable, and the Great Reset reminded us of that.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The solution was to fix spending to align with acceptable CAC metrics.\u202fBy and large, that has happened, and public SaaS stocks are, for the first time in many quarters, starting to see an increase in net new average recurring revenue.\u202fAs we model moving forward, we should take care not to assume the same sales responsiveness as we saw in the boom cycle.\u202fIf you plan to scale quickly, ensure measurable outcomes at short intervals. Adding too fast may lead to job cuts, and wisdom dictates it’s best not to overextend initially.<\/p>\n

Obsessing over efficiency \u2014 or at least the path to efficiency \u2014 will always be fashionable, and the Great Reset reminded us of that.\u202fPerfecting your sales efficiency is a great tool for maximizing value.\u202fAll else equal, the company with more efficient sales and marketing is worth more than the company with less efficient operations.<\/p>\n

My Great (Reset) Expectation for 2024 is we will likely see more experimentation in increasing spend while maintaining an obsessively careful measurement of efficiency. Whereas in the boom, you might have \u201cwaited out\u201d the path to efficiency by \u201cgrowing into it,\u201d if you fail to hit your target metrics, it is far more likely that you will be unwinding some costs.<\/p>\n

Valuations remain closer to 10-year lows than the highs of 2021<\/h2>\n

When demand changed as it did in early 2022, there were two painful implications.\u202fCAC getting worse means less profit, and slower sales success means less growth.\u202fThat led to a material change in growth and expectations, which necessarily compresses valuations.\u202fValuation is supposed to be the discounted present value of all future cash flows \u2014 less growth and less profit compound to pull valuation down, and this is the reason we saw peak-to-trough valuations fall by up to 70% in the early moments of the Great Reset.<\/p>\n

But the cost of failure will remain high as valuations are unlikely to rebound so far that it brings back the \u201cwell, I\u2019ll just sell it if it doesn\u2019t work\u201d lever for founders.\u00a0<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

One implication of lower valuation multiples is that founders and investors no longer have the \u201cWell, I\u2019ll just sell if it doesn\u2019t work\u201d lever to pull. In the near future, valuations will likely drift upward slightly as net new growth gathers momentum. But the cost of failure will remain high as valuations are unlikely to rebound so far that it brings back the \u201cwell, I\u2019ll just sell it if it doesn\u2019t work\u201d lever for founders.<\/p>\n

Capital is more expensive \u2014 and that\u2019s assuming it\u2019s available<\/h2>\n

Capital is a fickle thing.\u202fThere is either way too much, or there is way too little.\u202fInterest rates are low, or interest rates are high. The swing up is a glorious thing. It\u2019s what created this boom. It\u2019s what will create the next boom.\u202fThe swing down is painful.\u202fWe are still feeling it.<\/p>\n

Funds are seeing elongated capital-raising cycles.\u202fValuations are reset lower, and there is less capital flowing into the ecosystem.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

With the Great Reset of valuations, there was a massive reduction in exit activity.\u202fThat means the Limited Partners that back new funds have been slower to make new commitments, as today\u2019s liquidity is tomorrow\u2019s commitment.\u202fFunds are seeing elongated capital-raising cycles.\u202fValuations are reset lower and<\/i> there is less capital flowing into the ecosystem.\u202fIn boom times, if you try and fail, who cares?\u202fJust raise more.\u202fTry and fail now?\u202fEeek.<\/p>\n

The Great Reset applies to capital availability, and the \u201cunfundable\u201d bar has been raised much higher. However, in 2024, we will likely see more capital activity.\u202fBut the cost of failure to keep a sufficient cash cushion could still be catastrophic dilution or worse.\u202fMy general rule of thumb is to tell founders to assume they raise at 409A \u2014 the fair market value of common stock. If raising at 409A is accretive, then by all means, let\u2019s do better. If raising at 409A is deemed too dilutive, the best course of action is to curtail burn.<\/p>\n

Looking ahead, I am excited for the year to come.\u202f2022 was a Great Reset of valuation multiples.\u202f2023 was a Great Reset of performance expectations.\u202fLet\u2019s make 2024 the year we exceed our Great (Reset) Expectations!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This article originally appeared on Fortune.com. We have all been through a lot in the past four years.\u202fIn early 2020, the NASDAQ was at or near record for most of January and February.\u202fThings felt great.\u202fThen COVID-19 broke out.\u202fThe rapid adaption of tech, fueled by remote work, led to a massive tech boom and supercharged adoption, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":18734,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18683","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-article","category-thought-leadership","topic-industry-insights","domain-future-of-work","idea_types-press"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTech valuations are at a 10-year low \u2014 but optimism should be at a 5-year high. 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We have all been through a lot in the past four years.\u202fIn early 2020, the NASDAQ was at or near record for most of January and February.\u202fThings felt great.\u202fThen COVID-19 broke out.\u202fThe rapid adaption of tech, fueled by remote work, led to a massive tech boom and supercharged adoption, […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.insightpartners.com\/ideas\/tech-valuations-are-at-a-10-year-low-but-optimism-should-be-at-a-5-year-high-heres-why\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Insight Partners\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-02-16T18:31:05+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-02-20T16:56:14+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.insightpartners.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/Insight-Partners-ProductTech8.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1760\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Cecilia Beard\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@insightpartners\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@insightpartners\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Cecilia Beard\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.insightpartners.com\/ideas\/tech-valuations-are-at-a-10-year-low-but-optimism-should-be-at-a-5-year-high-heres-why\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.insightpartners.com\/ideas\/tech-valuations-are-at-a-10-year-low-but-optimism-should-be-at-a-5-year-high-heres-why\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Cecilia Beard\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.insightpartners.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d7857b7d2815e82ba1d4d475aeed306b\"},\"headline\":\"Tech valuations are at a 10-year low \u2014 but optimism should be at a 5-year high. 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